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Sunday, November 9, 2008

Where next for the Republican Party?

Three obsessions come to mind when one hears the term 'Republican Party'. They are abortion, gay marriage, and tax cuts.

While opponents of the first two, and proponents of the latter, are passionate about their causes, these issues alone are far from sufficient to win elections or, having won, to govern.

All of us would rather pay less in taxes. However, even if taxes are increased to the rates proposed by President-elect Obama, the effects on incentives will be trivial. Compare his proposals to the situation that existed prior to the Kennedy tax cuts of 1964 when the top income tax rate was 91% (not a typo). The top tax rate remained at an extortionate 70% level until the Reagan tax cuts of 1981.

Abortion and gay marriage simply do not resonate with the part of the electorate which would rather have the government stay out of its personal business. Many such citizens are naturally inclined to support Republicans but regard freedom from government regulation as paramount.

That a center right electorate should entrust the Presidency to a very left of center liberal merely emphasizes the intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party.

Senator Barry Goldwater's defeat (losing all but six states) in 1964 was more comprehensive but marked the real beginning of an intellectual and philosophical renaissance which culminated in the election of President Reagan. The defeat of the Soviet Union and the destruction of the conventional wisdom that confiscatory taxes were legitimate can both the attributed to the fact that the Republican Party's actions and policies were underpinned by a political philosphy rather than a mere desire to wield power.

Republicans will not soon regain the White House, the Senate, or the House of Representatives until they are seen to stand for something positive. There is an almost endless list of difficult issues - relations with other nations, radical Islam and terrorism, poverty at home, health care, climate change and energy to name only a few - that demand the development of serious policies. Mere opposition to left wing conventional wisdom will not be sufficient.

It is not obvious who will lead (there is no clear successor to William F. Buckley) but there is a very big question that needs to be answered.

What do we Rebublicans believe America stands for - at home and abroad?

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