Iraq's Civil War

On Thanksgiving Day, the Iraqi parliament approved a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States. This agreement replaces United Nations Resolution 1790 which authorized the US presence and permitted us to take military action in Iraq.

A key provision of the SOFA is that the deadline for withdrawal of all US troops is now December 31, 2011. This is compatible with President-elect Obama's campaign promise to remove all combat troops within a sixteen month period.

So far so good but we should not be in too much of a hurry to give thanks. For a nation to emerge into the company of civilized democracies, it appears that a necessary - although not sufficient - condition is that it hold one or more civil wars.

The medium term outcome of the SOFA may be that Iraq has agreed to schedule its first.