End of the line...

After blogging for almost a year, and having written nearly two hundred short essays, I have come to the conclusion that I am spending too much time to provide too little value to too few readers.

One of the important lessons that I have learned is one that professional writers (I am not one) know: the process is hard and time consuming. There is good reason why thoughtful commentators write only a few columns each week. Researching and understanding topics, as well as choosing the proper words so that the thoughts come out right on paper, takes a lot of time.

There are other things that I should be doing. Some have the potential to make the world a slightly better place: working on behalf of sailors with disabilities, consulting to small businesses, helping to manage the financial affairs of the condominium association where I live are among them.

Although hard work, writing here has been fun. On the other hand, it has been something of a self indulgent waste of time that can be better spent elsewhere. I will, therefore, bid my readers adieu and fade into the background. Those who want my advice and opinions know where to find me.

Economic stimulus package

Americans, like a pack of over-excited Golden Retrievers, are drooling over the prospects of getting their hands on some of the cash to be thrown around in President-elect Obama's economic stimulus package.

We should, however, consider this, written by Alexander Tyler in 1787 - the year that the Thirteen Colonies adopted the new Federal Constitution:

"A Democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse out of the public treasury."

Nearly fifty years later, Alexis de Toqueville came to a similar conclusion:

"The American Republic will endure, until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money."

The history of every democracy involves the seizure, by the government, of an ever increasing share of income. Worse, every year the proportion of transfer payments - compared to the purchase 0f public goods - increases.

Politicians, notwithstanding the fact that there is no such thing as a free lunch, have come to see the public treasury as a never ending source of wealth that can be distributed to all and sundry (well, to favored groups anyway) without incurring any cost. The politically incorrect term is that they are [more or less legally] buying votes. At the same time, voters have come to expect that they will be handed wealth from the public treasury without considering the fact that the wealth was theirs in the first place.

Except, someone will have to pay the bill - even if it is the next three generations.

We got into this economic mess because citizens and government, deluding themselves into believing that there is such a things as a free lunch, indulged in a frenzy of consumption financed by borrowing. Can it really be the case that more of the same will get us out again? Or would we be better served by accepting the realities and buckling down to work our way out of the hole that we have dug for ourselves? Arguably, deferring the inevitable will only make the pain greater.

Americans are not whiners and do not expect to have things handed to them. At least that was the way it used to be. If that has changed, then the predictions of Professor Tyler and M. de Toqueville are all too likely to come true sooner than we would like.

U.S. Postal Service

There was a time when I used around 150 - 200 first class stamps a year. Now, with online bill paying, and Internet submission of invoices to my clients, I write three or four checks each month and a book of stamps lasts all year, maybe longer.

The price of postage, however, increases almost every year and, inevitably, the result is a collection of unused - but now inadequate - stamps sitting in a desk drawer. That means a trip to the post office to buy a sheet of one or two cent stamps. Needless to say the number bought rarely matches the number of semi-obsolete stamps sitting in the desk drawer.

It is rare for a government organization to do the right and sensible thing but the United States Postal Service has got it right. USPS has issued a 'Forever' stamp that is good for first class mail from the time of purchase until the end of time.

This is a simple, although not necessarily obvious, idea that has benefits for everyone. Customers can avoid an unneeded trip to the post office, the Postal Service no longer needs to print so many low denomination stamps, and the incidence of mail returned for insufficient postage is reduced.

Everyone wins which, when dealing with government, is unusual. Let us hope that more civil servants will have the courage to abandon procedure and conventional wisdom in favor of service to citizens.

St. Augustine redux?

Yesterday, President-elect Obama visited Capitol Hill to pitch ideas for his proposed economic stimulus bill which will involve tax credits and much, much, spending.

Since, when it comes to spending, Congress's behavior resembles nothing so much as that of an out of control heroin addict, most of this is likely to become a never ending burden on the taxpayer. Many programs are created but few are ever ended.

While Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND), Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, did say that a commitment to reducing future deficits is critical, urgency is hard to find. Perhaps all Senators and Representatives should be forced to carry signs displaying a slightly modified version of St. Augustine's most notorious prayer:

" God, [at least when it comes to government spending,] give me chastity and continence, but not yet."

Enough said.

Budget Deficits

The Federal Government will run a very substantial fiscal deficit this year. Absent a complete market meltdown, the deficit can be financed even though the price may be high. That deals with the short term but, in the long term, spending will have to be cut unless taxes rise to unproductive and unsustainable levels.

States, cities, counties and other municipalities are also facing ugly mismatches between spending and revenue. Most of them are prohibited from deficit spending although there are some exceptions - mainly for capital projects and draws from so-called rainy day funds. Since there is a practical limit to the amount that taxes can be raised, spending must be cut.

Almost without exception, however, political cowardice reigns when spending cuts are on the agenda. Instead of making hard decisions about effectiveness and value, Governors and Mayors decree across the board spending cuts. Good programs are cut by as much as those that are useless and irrelevant.

We elect politicians to manage the affairs of government and to spend our money both effectively and in moderation. We also elect them to make hard choices: we must demand that they do so. Nor should we accept Ponzi schemes that involve out of control spending with the bill passed to the next generation.

Brave politicians will receive their due from thoughtful citizens. Even if their political careers end, they will know that they did the right thing. Better yet they will set an example set for national politicians to follow.

Theft

Theodore Roosevelt clearly understood human nature and the impact that education, wealth and power can have when he said:

A man who has never gone to school may steal from a freight car; but if he has a university education, he may steal the whole railroad.

Bernie Madoff is only the latest in the financial world to have stolen - or at least tried to steal - the whole railroad. There will be more and, since the regulators will be a step behind, we should always keep in mind the old cliche: if it seems to be too good to be true, it probably is.

Unenforceable Laws

As we contemplate the opening of the 111th Congress next week, let us hope that some of its members will remember, or at least have their staffs draw their attention to, these wise words uttered by Albert Einstein:

"Nothing is more destructive of respect for the government and the law of the land than passing laws which cannot be enforced."

Since opinion polls, and the desire for re-election at almost any cost, now drive political behavior, the consequence is an almost obsessive need for politicians to be seen to be doing something. The result, all too often, is a panderfest of unenforceable law.

War in Afghanistan

As the American involvement in Iraq begins to wind down, many more troops will be heading to Afghanistan.

Unfortunately, few policy makers seem to be considering that, even though the Afghans start each war badly, they have a two hundred year record of four wins and no losses. The losers during this time period are:

• Britain: 1st Afghan War 1838 - 1842


• Britain: 2nd Afghan War 1878 - 1921


• Britain: 3rd Afghan War 1919 - 1921


• Soviet Union: Afghan War 1979 - 1989

Now the Great Game is on again: America 2001 - present.

In 656 AD, a few years after the death of the Prophet Mohammad, Arab armies invaded Afghanistan in the name of Islam. It took over two hundred years until Afghanistan was fully conquered, in approximately 870 AD, and the population converted to Sunni Islam. From that time on there have been many invaders - Genghis Khan, the Moghuls and the Persians to name a few - but none have managed to disturb the Islamic and tribal nature of the country for long.

Afghanistan is occupied - sort of - by NATO and American armies who are attempting something that has never been achieved in the history of the country. That is the creation of a strong central government which will be able to control the country and, most important to the West but not perhaps to Afghans, deny sanctuary to Islamic terrorists.

There is little likelihood of any victory in Afghanistan in the near or medium term since the West's objectives (the rule of law and the dissolution of terrorist bases and sanctuaries in the bad lands of the Afghan - Pakistani border) are no closer now than in 2001 when America invaded and overthrew the then Taliban dominated government. The idea that Afghanistan can be governed by a strong central government has simply not been accepted by the tribes who value autonomy over country and those who know that the forces of Islam are again at war against the Crusaders.

Be prepared for the loss of many more of our lives and much treasure, for little gain, in one of the world's great hell holes.

Cheap and nasty

In the 1950s and 1960s 'Made in Japan' was a synonym for cheap, nasty and low quality goods. Now it is the standard of quality and value. Today, cheap and nasty is identified by 'Made in China'. That would be more or less bearable except for the fact that all too many of these poor quality products are also dangerous.

The response of most Americans, encouraged by the media, is to blame our government for not inspecting everything and protecting us from harm. The reality is that we need to stop whining and begin looking out for ourselves. Relying on government, which is generally expensive, inefficient, and incompetent, simply doesn't work very well. Self reliance is an American characteristic of which we need to see more.

This quote, from Maya Angelou's latest book - Letter to My Daughter - provides valuable advice:

"Never whine. Whining lets a brute know that a victim is in the neighborhood."

So, whining and complaining are out: action is in. I simply intend to do my absolute best to avoid anything that says 'Made in China'. I will change my mind when Chinese manufacturers achieve the quality and reliability standards of their counterparts in Japan and Korea.