Nuclear Power

Murphy's Law says that whatever can go wrong, will go wrong, at the worst possible time. A corollary to Murphy's Law states that Murphy was an optimist.

A more subtle description of the ongoing disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is suggested by this quote attributed to engineer James Arnhein in the book Forensic Engineering written by Professor Kenneth Carper:

"Engineering: the art and science of molding materials we do not fully understand; into shapes we cannot precisely analyze; to resist forces we cannot accurately predict; all in such a way that the society at large is given no reason to suspect the extent of our ignorance."

Knowing this, design engineers generally add additional safety margins (i.e. fudge factors) as they attempt to compensate for the limits of their knowledge and of the unknown - perhaps even unknowable - events that may take place. Whether the problem is operator error, outside intervention, a catastrophic natural disaster, or some combination of all of these, human imagination is frequently unable to conceive of the forces, stresses and malfunctions that may actually take place.

On the other hand, a design that attempts to guard against every possible event, or combination of events, whether known or unknown and no matter how unlikely, will not only be uneconomic but, according to Murphy, will still malfunction. Since that is so, designers must rely on the much maligned cost-benefit analysis which, for all its appearance of objectivity, is essentially a political - sometimes a legal - rather than a technical decision.

Without minimizing the potential danger posed by nuclear reactors, the consequences so far (none dead and cost of $24 - $30 billion to replace the destroyed reactors) are almost trivial compared to the damage and loss of life (more than ten thousand dead and some $235 billion in property damage) caused by the earthquake and tsunami.

In spite of all of the shouting and fuss about this latest disaster, there is one simple reality: life can not be a totally risk free adventure. It would be useful if the public were to get used to that idea - sooner rather than later.