Rocks and Hard Places

The dilemma faced by governments in the Middle East was aptly summed up by Alexis de Toqueville some one hundred and eighty years ago:

"The most dangerous moment for a bad government is when it starts to reform."

Middle Eastern dictators and absolute monarchs, confronting riots and demands for reform, have few choices other than all out resistance - with some possibility of survival - or genuine reform and the likelihood of being deposed by leaderless mobs. Whichever direction they take still leaves them between a rock and a hard place.

Disruptions to the flow of oil are likely. We, therefore, having failed to curb our excessive dependence on a commodity that is controlled by unstable nations, have created our own hard place. Every President since Richard Nixon has warned of the danger but never has there been the political will to do anything about the problem.

Those who remember the Arab oil embargo of 1973 and the cessation of Iranian oil exports following the revolution in 1979 will find themselves pondering Mark Twain's insight:

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."

The chance that anything constructive will happen this time is low but your correspondent would be pleased were he to find himself surprised.