War in Afghanistan (2)

In 2001, when the United States first sent troops to Afghanistan, the country was ruled by the Taliban who then provided a safe haven for our real enemy, al-Qaeda. The initial military operations were largely successful in that al-Qaeda was driven into hiding and its operations severely disrupted. To have captured, or killed, Osama bin Ladin would have been a bonus but the fact that it did not happen does not significantly reduce the success of the initial operations.

The Taliban can reasonably described, at least by Western standards, as really unpleasant religious zealots with a primitive medieval outlook on human and, specially, women's rights. On the other hand, we only have one real issue with them which is that they still supply a safe haven, albeit less useful than before 2001, for our enemy. The task (see also mission creep) in Afghanistan has now morphed into an attempt to create a functioning nation state from what has only ever been a collection of warring tribes whose ferocity, and determination to remain autonomous, cannot be questioned.

Between 1839 and 1922, the British fought three Afghan Wars and found the task of controlling the country to be impossible. The Russians retired in disarray in 1989 after ten years of fierce fighting. The only successful invaders of Afghanistan were the Arabs in 656 AD. Even then, it took more than two hundred years for the country to be made safe for Islam.

Given that we are now fighting a war on behalf of a weak and corrupt government, we seem doomed to fail. Creating a nation in Afghanistan will not take years or even tens of years. It will take centuries.

The only possible solution - other than years of fighting for little gain - is to make a deal with the Taliban that might look something like this.

1. So long as you, the Taliban, promise, in the name of Allah, to refuse safe haven for al-Qaeda or any other terrorist group that is sworn to destroy America and its allies, we will depart and leave you alone.
2. You must give us safe passage to leave.
3. If you kill or capture Osama bin Ladin and his senior colleagues, we will send you large sums of money.
4. If you renege on this agreement, we will use air power and missiles to turn your cities into smoking ruins.

There is a not so small problem with believing any such promises by the Taliban: some extreme interpretations of Islam permit believers to lie to infidels if that will serve the cause. On the other hand, we would be gone and the loss of lives and treasure would end.

Perhaps this proposal is too simplistic but, had we acted on the advice given to President Lyndon Johnson by the late Senator George Aiken (R-Vt) during the Vietnam War, it is not clear that the long term outcome would have been much different. Let us, then, borrow Senator Aiken's words: "Declare victory and leave" so that we may begin to prepare for the very real threats posed by a nuclear armed North Korea and a soon to be nuclear armed Iran. Unless we are prepared to use our own nuclear weapons, we do not have the resources to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan while still providing a credible deterrent against these other enemies or an adequate response if worst comes to worst.

Our leaders, therefore, must establish priorities and your correspondent believes that Afghanistan is low on the list.