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Saturday, December 12, 2009

End of the Year Punditry

As we come to the end of the year, the commentariat is occupying itself with reviews of the year that is almost past and forecasts for the year to come. It is notable that the reviews of the past year almost never admit (the Economist Newspaper is a rare exception) to the errors that the pundit made in his or her previous forecast.

Everyone who is tempted to prognosticate - perhaps bloviate is a better word - about the year to come, should keep in mind economist John Kenneth Galbraith's most perceptive remark:

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."

This also applies to those who attempt to forecast trends in technology, politics, culture and almost any other subject that can be imagined.

Enough said.

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