According to the late Bill Vaughn, a columnist for the Kansas City Star: "An optimist stays up until midnight to see the new year in. A pessimist stays up to make sure the old year leaves."
Since I was old enough to stay up until midnight, I usually have. The sole exception is New Year's Eve when I have an uncontrollable urge to fall asleep at 10:00 p.m. Since I find sloppy drunks offensively boring, and the drivers too dangerous for my taste, I shall be in bed early tonight knowing that, even as I write at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, it is already next year in most of the world.
Have a very happy and prosperous 2010.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Monday, December 28, 2009
Getting Lucky
In the aftermath of the attempted bombing of Delta Flight 253 on Christmas Day, we are being treated to the unedifying sight of politicians rushing around in ever decreasing circles while chanting 'something must be done'. Meanwhile, bureaucrats are rewriting the security theater script and the average traveller will be expected to endure additional hours of aggravation for no significant increase in safety.
Not even grossly intrusive security systems can prevent every incident. Those who expect the government to guarantee their safety on airplanes are, to put it politely, delusional.
Martin McGuinness (now Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland and believed to have been Army Council Chief of Staff of the Provisional IRA during the most recent episode of the 'troubles') referred to the 1984 bombing of the Grand Hotel in Brighton, which killed five Conservative Members of Parliament and narrowly missed then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, in the following terms:
“Today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to be lucky once – [the security services] will have to be lucky always."
Mr. McGuinness knows what he was talking about.
The real issue is simple: regardless of the efforts of the intelligence and security services, some successful attacks are inevitable. The question, then, is whether we are adult enough to accept what we can not avoid, even while greatly disliking it, or whether we will behave like a bunch of spoiled children whose unrealistic demands for perfect protection can only lead to a 'cure' that may well be worse than the disease.
To sacrifice our freedom in the fruitless pursuit of total safety is a betrayal of every value held by the founders of our nation.
Not even grossly intrusive security systems can prevent every incident. Those who expect the government to guarantee their safety on airplanes are, to put it politely, delusional.
Martin McGuinness (now Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland and believed to have been Army Council Chief of Staff of the Provisional IRA during the most recent episode of the 'troubles') referred to the 1984 bombing of the Grand Hotel in Brighton, which killed five Conservative Members of Parliament and narrowly missed then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, in the following terms:
“Today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to be lucky once – [the security services] will have to be lucky always."
Mr. McGuinness knows what he was talking about.
The real issue is simple: regardless of the efforts of the intelligence and security services, some successful attacks are inevitable. The question, then, is whether we are adult enough to accept what we can not avoid, even while greatly disliking it, or whether we will behave like a bunch of spoiled children whose unrealistic demands for perfect protection can only lead to a 'cure' that may well be worse than the disease.
To sacrifice our freedom in the fruitless pursuit of total safety is a betrayal of every value held by the founders of our nation.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
MOMMY... MOMMY...
...GOTTA GO POTTY!
Following the attempted bombing on Christmas Day of a Northwest Airlines flight, the Transportation Security Agency (TSA) has decreed that no one on an international flight to the USA will be permitted to leave his or her seat during the last hour prior to landing.
A variation of this rule was in effect for all flights in and out of Washington Reagan National Airport after it reopened following the 9/11 attacks. The difference, then ,was that the restriction was in effect for only thirty minutes prior to landing and after take off.
Even though thirty minutes does not seem an excessively long time, several flight attendants informed me that, during the time that rule was in effect, it was normal to have to change at least one wet seat cushion on every flight. Working on the principle that forewarned is forearmed, I took to checking seat cushions before sitting down and, indeed, had to request a change more than once.
TSA wins yet another award for futile security theater by introducing a rule that will achieve nothing except to make many passengers uncomfortable and some of them very embarrassed.
See also 'our government at work'.
MOMMY... GOTTA GO POTTY.
Following the attempted bombing on Christmas Day of a Northwest Airlines flight, the Transportation Security Agency (TSA) has decreed that no one on an international flight to the USA will be permitted to leave his or her seat during the last hour prior to landing.
A variation of this rule was in effect for all flights in and out of Washington Reagan National Airport after it reopened following the 9/11 attacks. The difference, then ,was that the restriction was in effect for only thirty minutes prior to landing and after take off.
Even though thirty minutes does not seem an excessively long time, several flight attendants informed me that, during the time that rule was in effect, it was normal to have to change at least one wet seat cushion on every flight. Working on the principle that forewarned is forearmed, I took to checking seat cushions before sitting down and, indeed, had to request a change more than once.
TSA wins yet another award for futile security theater by introducing a rule that will achieve nothing except to make many passengers uncomfortable and some of them very embarrassed.
See also 'our government at work'.
MOMMY... GOTTA GO POTTY.
Friday, December 25, 2009
Christmas
Today is the day that Christians celebrate the birth of Jesus Christ, their Saviour.
For the non-Christians in the Western world and, sadly, all too many that profess the Christian faith, the season is also an orgy of debt-fueled spending, gluttony, and drunkenness. It would be a pleasure to think that the current economic circumstances would lead us closer to the true spirit of Christmas but I am not optimistic.
In 1928, the iconic American comedian, Will Rogers, proving that there is nothing new under the sun, described the then (and now) consumer frenzy:
"Too many people spend money they haven't earned, to buy things they don't want, to impress people they don't like."
For those of you who understand the real reason for celebration, have a very Merry Christmas.
To the rest: Bah Humbug!
For the non-Christians in the Western world and, sadly, all too many that profess the Christian faith, the season is also an orgy of debt-fueled spending, gluttony, and drunkenness. It would be a pleasure to think that the current economic circumstances would lead us closer to the true spirit of Christmas but I am not optimistic.
In 1928, the iconic American comedian, Will Rogers, proving that there is nothing new under the sun, described the then (and now) consumer frenzy:
"Too many people spend money they haven't earned, to buy things they don't want, to impress people they don't like."
For those of you who understand the real reason for celebration, have a very Merry Christmas.
To the rest: Bah Humbug!
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Health Care Reform
This morning, on a party line vote, the Senate passed a bill purporting to reform the health care system in the USA. That is the good news.
The bad news is that Senator Harry Reid (D-Nevada), who can only be described as very small minded and worse than partisan, has created a truly appalling piece of legislation. While the Senate bill might reduce, but not eliminate, the population of the uninsured, it will do little to increase the quality, or contain the costs, of health care in the USA.
Worse, the process of getting, and keeping, every single Democratic Senator on board has allowed blackmailers to demand the insertion of expensive special interest provisions into the bill. 'Larded with Pork', while a tiresome cliche, is a very modest term for this abysmal piece of work.
The bill now goes to a House - Senate conference committee where it must be reconciled with a significantly different - not quite as bad but still not at all good - bill that was passed by the House of Representatives on November 7th. President Obama, apparently heeding President Clinton's failed efforts (sometimes derisively known as 'Hillarycare') to reform the health care system in 1993, has remained above the fray and allowed the Congress to create a pair of ugly and incoherent monsters. Strong Presidential leadership will be essential if anything good is to emerge from the conference committee.
Unfortunately for our nation, the defining characteristics of Mr. Obama's first year in office have been eloquence and a woeful lack of leadership. On the campaign trail, his speeches were reminiscent of President Reagan's ability to communicate and inspire: unfortunately, the record of Mr. Obama's first year in office proves that his leadership skills are minimal compared to those possessed by that giant.
I would be pleased to be proven wrong but am not optimistic. The American health care system is broken but the bills passed by the House and the Senate offer no real solution. It may well be that the least bad outcome is no bill at all.
The bad news is that Senator Harry Reid (D-Nevada), who can only be described as very small minded and worse than partisan, has created a truly appalling piece of legislation. While the Senate bill might reduce, but not eliminate, the population of the uninsured, it will do little to increase the quality, or contain the costs, of health care in the USA.
Worse, the process of getting, and keeping, every single Democratic Senator on board has allowed blackmailers to demand the insertion of expensive special interest provisions into the bill. 'Larded with Pork', while a tiresome cliche, is a very modest term for this abysmal piece of work.
The bill now goes to a House - Senate conference committee where it must be reconciled with a significantly different - not quite as bad but still not at all good - bill that was passed by the House of Representatives on November 7th. President Obama, apparently heeding President Clinton's failed efforts (sometimes derisively known as 'Hillarycare') to reform the health care system in 1993, has remained above the fray and allowed the Congress to create a pair of ugly and incoherent monsters. Strong Presidential leadership will be essential if anything good is to emerge from the conference committee.
Unfortunately for our nation, the defining characteristics of Mr. Obama's first year in office have been eloquence and a woeful lack of leadership. On the campaign trail, his speeches were reminiscent of President Reagan's ability to communicate and inspire: unfortunately, the record of Mr. Obama's first year in office proves that his leadership skills are minimal compared to those possessed by that giant.
I would be pleased to be proven wrong but am not optimistic. The American health care system is broken but the bills passed by the House and the Senate offer no real solution. It may well be that the least bad outcome is no bill at all.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
The Corruption of Language (4)
The Boeing Company's latest passenger airplane took its first flight last week. In an Orwellian twist, the company has chosen to try an attach a name to this machine by calling it the '787 Dreamliner'.
Executive jets - the last bastion of airborne comfort and service - have names. With very few exceptions, large airliners have not had names since the Boeing 707 went into service in 1958. Those with names - Comet, Trident, Caravelle - were not exactly commercial successes and the companies that sold them no longer make long haul commercial airplanes.
Once upon a time, somewhere between the Ford Tri-Motor and the Boeing 737, even coach class air travel was vaguely elegant. There was attentive service, and a modest level of comfort, together with food that was bearable.
Now, to say that air travel is worse than that experienced by cattle being trucked to the slaughterhouse is only a slight exaggeration. Too many people, crammed into minuscule seats, are forced to suffer inadequate leg room, encroachment from the over sized passenger in the next seat, and disgusting food. Having endured the futile security theater performed by poorly trained idiots, passengers then have to survive the attentions of airline staff members who, clearly, would rather be somewhere else.
In addition to the horrors of air travel from the passenger's perspective, this aircraft is two years late (at least) and several billion dollars over budget. If Boeing really wants a name, then 'Nightmare Cattle Carrier' would be more accurate and go a long way towards complying with any truth in labeling legislation that may apply.
Boeing should forget about the moronic name and just stay with 787 as the model number. Since that follows the company's fifty plus year convention, it will refrain from continuing to look stupid as a result of a lame PR effort that only succeeds in corrupting our language.
Executive jets - the last bastion of airborne comfort and service - have names. With very few exceptions, large airliners have not had names since the Boeing 707 went into service in 1958. Those with names - Comet, Trident, Caravelle - were not exactly commercial successes and the companies that sold them no longer make long haul commercial airplanes.
Once upon a time, somewhere between the Ford Tri-Motor and the Boeing 737, even coach class air travel was vaguely elegant. There was attentive service, and a modest level of comfort, together with food that was bearable.
Now, to say that air travel is worse than that experienced by cattle being trucked to the slaughterhouse is only a slight exaggeration. Too many people, crammed into minuscule seats, are forced to suffer inadequate leg room, encroachment from the over sized passenger in the next seat, and disgusting food. Having endured the futile security theater performed by poorly trained idiots, passengers then have to survive the attentions of airline staff members who, clearly, would rather be somewhere else.
In addition to the horrors of air travel from the passenger's perspective, this aircraft is two years late (at least) and several billion dollars over budget. If Boeing really wants a name, then 'Nightmare Cattle Carrier' would be more accurate and go a long way towards complying with any truth in labeling legislation that may apply.
Boeing should forget about the moronic name and just stay with 787 as the model number. Since that follows the company's fifty plus year convention, it will refrain from continuing to look stupid as a result of a lame PR effort that only succeeds in corrupting our language.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change (3)
The Copenhagen Conference ended yesterday with a so-called "political" agreement - not a draft treaty. The best description of this agreement is that it is little more than a fig leaf and, as I previously suggested would happen, nothing useful was achieved.
The issue is that the developing nations, including fast growing countries such as China, Brazil, and India, want the industrial nations to do all of the heavy lifting. Admittedly the industrial nations have spent the past two hundred years as the major contributors to the problem but that is not the point. Given that China has now passed the USA for the title of CO2 Emitter #1, and India is not far behind, no solution is possible without major reductions on the part of the developing world.
Worse, since CO2 and other greenhouse gases do not respect national borders, even if the industrial nations can cut their emissions to zero - resulting in intense discomfort followed by grinding poverty - the problem is not solved. Unless all countries co-operate - and act - no solution is possible. Indulging in frenzied "blame throwing" is worse than unhelpful.
One possible approach to the fossil fuel and greenhouse gas problem is a substantial carbon tax levied on all fuels used at home (including imported fuel) and an equivalent border tax on imports of goods and services from countries that do not apply such a tax. Needless to say such an approach will be complicated - and loopholes will abound - but now is the time to start designing and implementing such a program.
If we do nothing, then let us eat, drink, and be merry - for tomorrow we die - which suggests that we just don't care about our grandchildren and their children. That approach can only be described as profoundly immoral.
Enough said.
The issue is that the developing nations, including fast growing countries such as China, Brazil, and India, want the industrial nations to do all of the heavy lifting. Admittedly the industrial nations have spent the past two hundred years as the major contributors to the problem but that is not the point. Given that China has now passed the USA for the title of CO2 Emitter #1, and India is not far behind, no solution is possible without major reductions on the part of the developing world.
Worse, since CO2 and other greenhouse gases do not respect national borders, even if the industrial nations can cut their emissions to zero - resulting in intense discomfort followed by grinding poverty - the problem is not solved. Unless all countries co-operate - and act - no solution is possible. Indulging in frenzied "blame throwing" is worse than unhelpful.
One possible approach to the fossil fuel and greenhouse gas problem is a substantial carbon tax levied on all fuels used at home (including imported fuel) and an equivalent border tax on imports of goods and services from countries that do not apply such a tax. Needless to say such an approach will be complicated - and loopholes will abound - but now is the time to start designing and implementing such a program.
If we do nothing, then let us eat, drink, and be merry - for tomorrow we die - which suggests that we just don't care about our grandchildren and their children. That approach can only be described as profoundly immoral.
Enough said.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Inflation Anyone?
Yesterday the Senate Banking Committee agreed, by a 17 - 7 vote, to recommend the confirmation of Ben Bernanke for a second term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. That such a gross error should be made by so many is regrettable, even if not unexpected, because the risk of future inflation is greatly increased if he is confirmed
Dr. Bernanke was an active conspirator with then Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (Bubblespan) in the creation of the housing and debt bubbles of 2001 - 2007. Admittedly, since the beginning of the disaster, he has done much to prevent a total meltdown of the economy but his talents are not exactly unique.
Why, then, should we trust him not lead us into another financial disaster?
Dr. Bernanke is a student of the Great Depression. There is good reason to suspect that he has learned - all too well - the lessons of 1937 when over-enthusiastic monetary and fiscal tightening pushed the economy back to its knees. In 1937, the National Debt was hardly something that worried financiers and politicians. Nor were the risks of throwing money around particularly high as shown by our nation's ability to finance the costs of World War II. Now, our nation's indebtedness has financial and strategic consequences that should provide many sleepless nights for our leaders. In this situation, more is not better!
The risk is that Dr. Bernanke will keep throwing money at our economy without taking into account the fact that 10% unemployment, while undesirable, is far better than the inflation inflicted on Germany under the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe under Dictator Mugabe. Million percent inflation (it could happen) leads inevitably to Depression-era unemployment rates.
On the other hand, for an overwhelmingly indebted nation, such as the USA, which can borrow in its own currency, inflation is a marvellous way of making debt disappear. In times when Kings and Emperors ruled, they understood this well and frequently debased the currency. Taken too far, however, the destruction of middle class wealth - the poor have no wealth to destroy and the rich can protect themselves - risks tyranny or violent revolution.
Dr. Bernanke was a significant contributor to our current economic problems. While he has partially, but only partially, redeemed himself in the past eighteen months, the risks of re-appointing him are unacceptable.
The full Senate should decline to confirm him saying: "Thank you for your service, Dr. Bernanke. Enjoy your retirement."
Dr. Bernanke was an active conspirator with then Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (Bubblespan) in the creation of the housing and debt bubbles of 2001 - 2007. Admittedly, since the beginning of the disaster, he has done much to prevent a total meltdown of the economy but his talents are not exactly unique.
Why, then, should we trust him not lead us into another financial disaster?
Dr. Bernanke is a student of the Great Depression. There is good reason to suspect that he has learned - all too well - the lessons of 1937 when over-enthusiastic monetary and fiscal tightening pushed the economy back to its knees. In 1937, the National Debt was hardly something that worried financiers and politicians. Nor were the risks of throwing money around particularly high as shown by our nation's ability to finance the costs of World War II. Now, our nation's indebtedness has financial and strategic consequences that should provide many sleepless nights for our leaders. In this situation, more is not better!
The risk is that Dr. Bernanke will keep throwing money at our economy without taking into account the fact that 10% unemployment, while undesirable, is far better than the inflation inflicted on Germany under the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe under Dictator Mugabe. Million percent inflation (it could happen) leads inevitably to Depression-era unemployment rates.
On the other hand, for an overwhelmingly indebted nation, such as the USA, which can borrow in its own currency, inflation is a marvellous way of making debt disappear. In times when Kings and Emperors ruled, they understood this well and frequently debased the currency. Taken too far, however, the destruction of middle class wealth - the poor have no wealth to destroy and the rich can protect themselves - risks tyranny or violent revolution.
Dr. Bernanke was a significant contributor to our current economic problems. While he has partially, but only partially, redeemed himself in the past eighteen months, the risks of re-appointing him are unacceptable.
The full Senate should decline to confirm him saying: "Thank you for your service, Dr. Bernanke. Enjoy your retirement."
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Pushing Granny Under a Bus
In 2001, the [George W.] Bush administration, and the Republicans who then controlled the Congress, purported to repeal the Estate Tax. The provisions of the 2001 Tax Bill progressively reduced rates and increased exemptions through 2009. Then the tax was repealed in its entirety beginning in 2010.
In an exercise of spectacular intellectual dishonesty, however, and to "make the numbers come out right" according to the Congressional Budget Office's "scoring process", the tax reappears in 2011 at the 2001 rate - 55% with a $1 million exemption.
Assuming, then, that Granny is even modestly wealthy, the incentives for pushing her under a bus next year are higher than we might care to think about. If there is no convenient bus, then a close encounter with a pillow may well serve.
[Full disclosure: both of my parents are dead and I am not named as a beneficiary in any one's will].
It is not right to tempt the Ungodly but that is what the Congress has done. Wealthy parents and grandparents, particularly those who are ill and frail, may want to keep a wary eye on their descendants.
In an exercise of spectacular intellectual dishonesty, however, and to "make the numbers come out right" according to the Congressional Budget Office's "scoring process", the tax reappears in 2011 at the 2001 rate - 55% with a $1 million exemption.
Assuming, then, that Granny is even modestly wealthy, the incentives for pushing her under a bus next year are higher than we might care to think about. If there is no convenient bus, then a close encounter with a pillow may well serve.
[Full disclosure: both of my parents are dead and I am not named as a beneficiary in any one's will].
It is not right to tempt the Ungodly but that is what the Congress has done. Wealthy parents and grandparents, particularly those who are ill and frail, may want to keep a wary eye on their descendants.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change (2)
On Monday, the developing countries walked out of the Copenhagen Conference for a few hours over a leaked draft of a treaty that would remove their exemption from the Kyoto Treaty's CO2 reductions. This suggests that getting to an agreement will be hard, possibly impossible, but even if an agreement is reached, the chances of it actually resulting in something useful would seem to be vanishingly close to zero.
There are good arguments, not least the fact that the supply of fossil fuels is ultimately finite, for converting the world economy to sustainable sources of energy. On the other hand, there are technological, logistical, and cost issues - not least being how to store electricity at a reasonable price - that make it impossible to do so overnight or even in the near future. That doesn't mean that we should do nothing but increased funding for basic and applied research is urgently needed.
The inevitable conclusion is that it is going to get a quite a bit hotter and rising sea levels will be an uncomfortable consequence. This will last for a few hundred years until the conversion to sustainable energy development is complete.
Developing the expertize and infrastructure to adapt to the likely new circumstances is the critical priority. Chasing pie-in-the-sky technologies such as CCS (carbon capture and storage) which, even if they can be made to work safely and effectively, will be grotesquely expensive, is not a recipe for prosperity.
Expect a bull market for hydraulic and civil engineers from the Netherlands which is, after all, a country that has thrived for centuries even though one third of its land area is below sea level.
There are good arguments, not least the fact that the supply of fossil fuels is ultimately finite, for converting the world economy to sustainable sources of energy. On the other hand, there are technological, logistical, and cost issues - not least being how to store electricity at a reasonable price - that make it impossible to do so overnight or even in the near future. That doesn't mean that we should do nothing but increased funding for basic and applied research is urgently needed.
The inevitable conclusion is that it is going to get a quite a bit hotter and rising sea levels will be an uncomfortable consequence. This will last for a few hundred years until the conversion to sustainable energy development is complete.
Developing the expertize and infrastructure to adapt to the likely new circumstances is the critical priority. Chasing pie-in-the-sky technologies such as CCS (carbon capture and storage) which, even if they can be made to work safely and effectively, will be grotesquely expensive, is not a recipe for prosperity.
Expect a bull market for hydraulic and civil engineers from the Netherlands which is, after all, a country that has thrived for centuries even though one third of its land area is below sea level.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
End of the Year Punditry
As we come to the end of the year, the commentariat is occupying itself with reviews of the year that is almost past and forecasts for the year to come. It is notable that the reviews of the past year almost never admit (the Economist Newspaper http://www.economist.com/ is a rare exception) to the errors that the pundit made in his or her previous forecast.
Everyone who is tempted to prognosticate - perhaps bloviate is a better word - about the year to come, should keep in mind economist John Kenneth Galbraith's most perceptive remark:
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."
This also applies to those who attempt to forecast trends in technology, politics, culture and almost any other subject that can be imagined.
Enough said.
Everyone who is tempted to prognosticate - perhaps bloviate is a better word - about the year to come, should keep in mind economist John Kenneth Galbraith's most perceptive remark:
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."
This also applies to those who attempt to forecast trends in technology, politics, culture and almost any other subject that can be imagined.
Enough said.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change (1)
Today's thought is the concept of 'Cap and Trade' - a mechanism which attempts to limit the production of greenhouse gases.
That is, the total amount of greenhouse gases emitted will be limited by law and companies will be issued entitlements to emit a certain amount. That is the 'Cap'. The 'Trade' allows companies to sell unused, or buy additional, permits.
Think of it as a command and control (i.e. socialism) combined with a legalized black market.
In the long run, neither command and control nor the black market is good for either prosperity or freedom.
The best approach to greenhouse gas reduction is to use the tax code to provide the price signals which the market, an inherently short term process, fails to send when there is a long term problem. Then rebate 100% of the proceeds via the payroll tax. Since the market will then be sending a signal that hiring new employees has become cheaper, it is likely that more people will be hired.
Perhaps this is all too obvious. Certainly it will be opposed by the rent seekers who will benefit from the bureaucracy, the loopholes in the laws, and the unintended consequences caused by the inherent economic flaws of the likely cap and trade process.
That is, the total amount of greenhouse gases emitted will be limited by law and companies will be issued entitlements to emit a certain amount. That is the 'Cap'. The 'Trade' allows companies to sell unused, or buy additional, permits.
Think of it as a command and control (i.e. socialism) combined with a legalized black market.
In the long run, neither command and control nor the black market is good for either prosperity or freedom.
The best approach to greenhouse gas reduction is to use the tax code to provide the price signals which the market, an inherently short term process, fails to send when there is a long term problem. Then rebate 100% of the proceeds via the payroll tax. Since the market will then be sending a signal that hiring new employees has become cheaper, it is likely that more people will be hired.
Perhaps this is all too obvious. Certainly it will be opposed by the rent seekers who will benefit from the bureaucracy, the loopholes in the laws, and the unintended consequences caused by the inherent economic flaws of the likely cap and trade process.
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